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06/03/2013 - Transfer of the Consumer Credit Regime: Costs and Firm Behaviour

The UK Government intends to transfer responsibility for the regulation of consumer credit from the Office of Fair Trading to the Financial Conduct Authority. Europe Economics has worked in collaboration with Policis to understand the implications of the new regime.  This report contains Europe Economics’ analysis of the impacts on the incremental costs of compliance and the impact of these cost changes on expected firm behaviour.

05/10/2012 - The WGC Proposal: Gold as Collateral for Eurozone Sovereign Debt

The World Gold Council (WGC) has commissioned Europe Economics to provide a politico-economic assessment of its proposal for the use of gold as collateral for Eurozone sovereign debt, especially the debt of Italy and Portugal. The executive brief, which summarises the WGC’s proposal, considering its merits relative to other ECB schemes such as the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) programme, may be downloaded here.

07/08/2012 - Supermarkets, suppliers and consumers (main report)

Europe Economics and Consumers International have recently collaborated on a paper dealing with supermarkets and their relationships with suppliers and consumers.  Bob Young of Europe Economics recently spoke on this topic at a conference organised by the Oxford University Faculty of Law (the Centre for Competition Law and Policy).  The full paper runs to thirty pages and the summary to ten. Both may be downloaded here.  

07/08/2012 - Supermarkets, suppliers and consumers (summary)

Europe Economics and Consumers International have recently collaborated on a paper dealing with supermarkets and their relationships with suppliers and consumers.  Bob Young of Europe Economics recently spoke on this topic at a conference organised by the Oxford University Faculty of Law (the Centre for Competition Law and Policy).  The full paper runs to thirty pages and the summary to ten. Both may be downloaded here.  

20/01/2012 - The Relationship between Sustainable Growth and Risk-free Rate: Evidence from UK Government Gilts

This paper investigates whether movements in index-linked government bond yields are correlated with movements in medium-term GDP growth rates in the way one might expect from theory. The paper finds that movements in UK ten-year index-linked gilts can now be seen to have been highly correlated with movements in average ten-year GDP growth (a relationship that has not been obvious until the recent recession). As theory implies should be possible, we appear to be able to infer an excellent forecast for the ten-year ahead growth rate of the economy from the yield on index-linked bonds. When we apply this model to current data, the forecast growth rate is markedly lower than that produced by approaches such as those used by the UK Office for Budget Responsibility.